Consultation on the setting of Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget (2038-2042)

Overview

Climate change is one of the defining generational issues of our time. The Earth’s climate is changing rapidly as human-induced warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Global temperatures have continued to increase with 2024 the warmest year on record. In recent years, we have seen the increasing impacts of climate change on a global scale, but we have also experienced first-hand the impacts of climate change locally here in Northern Ireland.

In 2020 the Northern Ireland Assembly declared a climate emergency, and in 2022 our Executive and Assembly stood together to pass the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 (the Act) that sets out a legal commitment to achieving net zero that aligns with UK and wider global commitments. Over 145 other countries worldwide have similar net zero targets, covering 90% of global emissions.

The Act sets out the framework for Northern Ireland to address climate change and established legally binding emissions targets, including the achievement of net zero emissions by 2050 (i.e. a 100% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared to a 1990 baseline), with a target for 2030 set in the Act of an at least 48% reduction in emissions, and a target for 2040 of an at least 77% reduction in emissions.

The Climate Change (Carbon Budgets 2023-2037) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024 which were approved by the Assembly in December 2024 set the first three carbon budgets for Northern Ireland. They are:

• First Carbon Budget: The carbon budget for the 2023-2027 budgetary period is an annual average of 33% lower than the baseline.
• Second Carbon Budget: The carbon budget for the 2028-2032 budgetary period is an annual average of 48% lower than the baseline. 
• Third Carbon Budget: The carbon budget for the 2033-2037 budgetary  period is an annual average of 62% lower than the baseline.

In line with the requirements of sections 56 and 58 of the Act we have sought and obtained the expert advice of the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) on the level at which Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget should be set.

In March this year the UK Climate Change Committee provided an advice report “Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget”, to the Northern Ireland Executive and it recommends that the Fourth Carbon Budget is set at an annual average reduction of 77% in emissions across the period (against the 1990 baseline).

In their report, the CCC sets out “The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway”, which details how the carbon budget can be delivered and met. It will, however, be up to the NI Executive to decide on and agree the specific policies, and proposals that will be taken forward in NI to deliver each of the carbon budgets. This will be set out in a series of Climate Action Plans, each of which will be consulted on and presented to the NI Assembly.

Why your views matter

The purpose of this consultation is to offer respondents the opportunity to provide their views on the percentage level at which the Fourth Carbon Budget for Northern Ireland should be set and to offer any supporting evidence which they believe should be considered. Responses will be used to help inform the development of the Regulations.

The consultation is not about the types of actions or interventions that may be considered in order to deliver on the Fourth Carbon Budget. The policies and  proposals that will be selected to deliver on the Fourth Carbon Budget have still to be decided and in some cases will be new policies, programmes and interventions informed by the latest science, the circumstances at the time, by looking at international examples and through innovation. Some of those policies will be developed and implemented at a UK Government level and others by NI departments following engagement with experts and through consultation with the public.

The policies and actions to deliver on the Fourth Carbon Budget will be contained in a draft Climate Action Plan for 2038-2042 that will be consulted on separately closer to that carbon budget period for 16 weeks and will be put to the NI Executive and Assembly.